Will Trump sign an executive order today?
Probability
16¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$15.18
Liquidity
$43.80
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 2
Wide spread — 28.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 3
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 19:40SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 00:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolved 20h ago
Price movement
-29.5pp over the last 24h, now 16¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order on April 25, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Executive actions will not qualify toward this market’s resolution. This market will immediately resolve "Yes" if the text of an executive order for the given day is published on the White House page for presidential actions (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/) or the White House press pool. Mere announcements will not qualify. If no executive order is published by 12:00 PM ET the day after the listed date of this market, this market will resolve to “No”. In the case of ambiguity this market may remain open until it is confirmed by the federal register.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 25, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- White HouseOfficial government sourceextracted · highwhitehouse.gov
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (28.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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