Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by May 31?
Probability
4¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.3pp
24h Vol
$17.72
Liquidity
$6.2K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (4.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Spread cost
Wide spread — 4.4¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (4.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 659.5h
Price movement
+0.3pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.
Biggest hourly move: -3.6pp at 3d ago (to 3¢).
Show 7 hourly moves
- 3d ago · -3.0pp → 3¢
- 3d ago · -3.0pp → 3¢
- 3d ago · -3.0pp → 3¢
- 3d ago · -3.6pp → 3¢
- 3d ago · -3.6pp → 3¢
- 3d ago · -3.0pp → 3¢
- 3d ago · -3.0pp → 3¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
7- 18¢-76.8
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?
Politics · Vol $237.8K
- 1¢0.0
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $205.6K
- 1¢0.0
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $115.2K
- 1¢0.0
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $97.9K
- 1¢0.0
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $91.3K
- 1¢0.0
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $89.4K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mojtaba Khamenei talks with Donald Trump by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". A talk is defined as any interaction between Mojtaba Khamenei and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.