Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $412.50 Week of June 29 2026?
Probability
100¢
1h
+12.4pp
24h
+69.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$0.00
Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream marked the market closed/settled with YES price dominant.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Methodology explanation
Review-only opportunity
No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.
Why this market is in review
signalResolution-source risk
40% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Paper-only action
paper-onlyReview-only opportunity
read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.
Risk / veto readback
reviewResolution review required
The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.
Source evidence
source4 mapped surfaces
283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.
Signals
- Resolution-source riskwatch
40% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Veto / blockers
- Resolution review requiredwatch
The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.
- Confidence below paper gatewatch
Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.
Costs / sizing
- Research score
- Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
- Capacity
- Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
- Liquidity
- Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jul 3, 2026
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- PrimaryPyth futures price feedLinkTypeCommodity price feed / futures dataConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jul 3, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 69pp over 24h
Now 100¢; +12.4pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 58h.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 58 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jul 3, 2026
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- PrimaryPyth futures price feedLinkTypeCommodity price feed / futures dataConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jul 3, 2026 — dispute window active.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary commodity price feed / futures data source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: Pyth futures price feed
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $412.50 Week of June 29 2026? State: Resolved YES — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary commodity price feed / futures data source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $412.50 Week of June 29 2026? State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jul 3, 20:00 UTCScheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 58.4h
- 09:36SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 58h.
Price movement
+69.5pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Biggest hourly move: +41.5pp at Jun 29, 19:00 UTC (to 92¢).
Show 6 hourly moves
- Jun 29, 19:00 UTC · +41.5pp → 92¢
- Jun 29, 17:00 UTC · +16.0pp → 66¢
- Jun 29, 16:00 UTC · +4.0pp → 54¢
- Jun 29, 14:00 UTC · -17.0pp → 33¢
- Jun 29, 13:00 UTC · -33.5pp → 17¢
- Jun 29, 11:00 UTC · -31.0pp → 19¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during the week of June 29 2026, any 1-minute candle for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
teslaReason
Question text contains "tesla" — matched the Business keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $412.50 Week of June 29 2026?"?
As of Wed, 01 Jul 2026 09:36:06 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +69.5pp in the last 24 hours, +12.4pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jul 3, 2026 (2026-07-03T20:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $576.63. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.