Will Tyler Vandenberg advance from the CA-06 primary election?
Probability
7¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$10.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 896h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $10.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 896.3h
- 15:39SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 896h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -42.0pp
to 7¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -42.0pp
to 7¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -41.5pp
to 7¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -40.5pp
to 7¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -40.0pp
to 7¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -40.0pp
to 7¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -41.0pp
to 7¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
12- 8¢-5.5pp
Will Lauren Babb Tomlinson advance from the CA-06 primary election?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 10¢0.0pp
Will Michael Stansfield advance from the CA-06 primary election?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 51¢+1.0pp
Will Thien Ho advance from the CA-06 primary election?
Politics · Vol $192.00
- 91¢+0.5pp
Will Kevin Kiley advance from the CA-06 primary election?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 9¢-14.5pp
Will Martha Guerrero advance from the CA-06 primary election?
Politics · Vol $170.00
- 51¢-2.5pp
Will Richard Pan advance from the CA-06 primary election?
Politics · Vol $7.20
- 3¢-1.2pp
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $646.5K
- 0¢-0.2pp
Trump out as President by April 30?
Politics · Vol $601.8K
- 5¢+0.1pp
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $494.4K
- 0¢+0.2pp
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $370.7K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $342.3K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $329.3K
Market Description
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 6th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jun 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).