Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0% and 0.3%?
Probability
19¢
1h
-2.5pp
24h
-6.0pp
24h Vol
$2.00
Liquidity
$670.71
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 445.8h
- 10:13SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 446h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 10:12PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 22¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 24¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 28¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 26¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 24¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 26¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 27¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 26¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.0pp
to 26¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 25¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 24¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 24¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 25¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 34¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 26¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 39¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 32¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 7¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 14, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year agoAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (26.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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