Will Ukraine be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
Probability
19¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.5pp
24h Vol
$12.35
Liquidity
$23.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 19¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $23.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
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Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 482.5h
Price movement
+1.0pp over the last 24h, now 19¢.
Biggest hourly move: +4.5pp at 11:00 (to 19¢).
Show 8 hourly moves
- 19:00 · +3.5pp → 19¢
- 17:00 · +4.5pp → 19¢
- 15:00 · +4.0pp → 19¢
- 14:00 · +3.5pp → 19¢
- 12:00 · +4.0pp → 19¢
- 11:00 · +4.5pp → 19¢
- 09:00 · +3.0pp → 19¢
- 08:00 · +3.0pp → 19¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named country finishes Eurovision 2026 as one of the top 3 highest scoring candidates. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 3 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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