Will Valencia qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?
Probability
48¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+21.6pp
24h Vol
$301.67
Liquidity
$44.71
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial UEFA dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (89.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+21.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 22pp over 24h
Now 48¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 89.9¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial UEFA dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (89.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Aug 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 2509.9h
- 10:04SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+21.6pp over the last 24h, now 48¢.
Biggest hourly move: +21.8pp at 07:00 (to 48¢).
Show top 8 of 11 hourly moves
- 10:00 · +21.8pp → 48¢
- 09:00 · +21.6pp → 48¢
- 07:00 · +21.8pp → 48¢
- 05:00 · +21.7pp → 48¢
- 03:00 · +21.5pp → 48¢
- 02:00 · +21.5pp → 48¢
- 00:00 · +21.5pp → 48¢
- 23:00 · +21.5pp → 48¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team clinches a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Conference League per UEFA rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to clinch a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Conference League (e.g. they cannot mathematically achieve a Conference League place, cannot qualify through play in European or cup competitions, etc.), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2025-26 LaLiga season is cancelled, postponed after August 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or the teams that qualified for the 2026-27 Conference League have not been officially confirmed by UEFA within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA and/or LaLiga; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
conference leagueReason
UEFA Conference League — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Valencia qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 10:04:50 GMT, YES is priced at 48% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +21.6pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +21.8pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Aug 31, 2026 (2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$301.67 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $628.36. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $44.71. Spread between best bid and best ask: 89.9¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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