Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award?
Probability
9¢
1h
+1.9pp
24h
+0.7pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$819.10
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 4831h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 11.7¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 4830.7h
- 17:16SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 4831h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 6¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.3pp
to 9¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.1pp
to 7¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.1pp
to 8¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.6pp
to 8¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.8pp
to 9¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 26¢-7.0pp
Will Aaron Judge win the 2026 American League MVP Award?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 14¢+2.0pp
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 34¢+23.4pp
Will Gunnar Henderson win the 2026 American League MVP Award?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 2¢0.0pp
Will Corey Seager win the 2026 American League MVP Award?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 36¢-1.4pp
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 2¢-0.1pp
Will Jose Ramirez win the 2026 American League MVP Award?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 37¢+28.3pp
Will Mike Trout win the 2026 American League MVP Award?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Julio Rodriguez win the 2026 American League MVP Award?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 100¢+40.5pp
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?
Sports · Vol $3.9M
- 80¢+13.0pp
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?
Sports · Vol $3.0M
- 0¢0.0pp
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs
Sports · Vol $1.8M
- 1¢0.0pp
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $1.6M
- 100¢+41.4pp
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?
Sports · Vol $1.5M
- 100¢+59.5pp
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner
Sports · Vol $1.4M
Market Description
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Most Valuable Player Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 13, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (11.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.