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OtherMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 30, 2026

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Probability

0¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.1pp

24h Vol

$39.9K

Liquidity

$204.1K

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.1pp 7d
Apr 17, 2026, 20:00Apr 24, 2026, 19:52
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Without an Anthropic API key we show a heuristic summary derived from the market metrics.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 124.1h

    LOW
  • 19:52Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 124h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

25
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWhich company has the best AI model end of April?
Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Apr 30, 2026
Resolution source
—
UMA status
n/a
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the market rules.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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Top Holders

20 wallets
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