Wobbly-Smoking
0x7a8048a6618824bb607b293bf03cb62b7174729c
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
136
Open notional
$5.2K
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$836.71
Win rate
100%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 136- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
3153 shares @ 43.2¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.5K
$1.1K
- NO
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
772 shares @ 45.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$772.00
$423.83
- NO
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 200M by May 1?
239 shares @ 96.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$238.62
$8.11
- YES
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
861 shares @ 39.3¢·now 26.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$223.90
$-114.84
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
200 shares @ 64.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$200.00
$72.00
- YES
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?
200 shares @ 12.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$200.00
$176.00
- NO
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
179 shares @ 84.7¢·now 95.7¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$171.34
$19.67
- NO
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?
156 shares @ 17.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$156.00
$128.53
- YES
Natural Disaster in 2026?
1100 shares @ 30.1¢·now 13.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$143.00
$-188.00
- YES
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?
814 shares @ 17.5¢·now 11.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$93.60
$-48.76
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
44/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.