Whimsical-Terminal
0x96489abcb9f583d6835c8ef95ffc923d05a86825
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.6M
Total PnL
$-1.7M
Realised
$545.7K
Win rate
69%
104 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
483774 shares @ 93.2¢·now 96.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$467.1K
$16.0K
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
343352 shares @ 71.2¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$310.7K
$66.3K
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
311322 shares @ 81.9¢·now 71.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$222.6K
$-32.5K
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
112300 shares @ 72.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$57.8K
$-23.0K
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
49227 shares @ 98.0¢·now 97.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$47.8K
$-432.26
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
58659 shares @ 77.6¢·now 77.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$45.2K
$-370.37
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
53846 shares @ 82.7¢·now 82.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$44.2K
$-358.45
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
42536 shares @ 95.6¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$42.2K
$1.5K
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
55326 shares @ 75.0¢·now 74.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$40.9K
$-597.07
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
36179 shares @ 95.0¢·now 91.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$32.9K
$-1.4K
Recent activity
- REDEEMIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$8.7KJul 25, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?$0.42Jul 25, 05:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$126.97Jul 25, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? $0.53Jul 25, 05:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?$2.5KJul 25, 05:26 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?$0.04Jul 25, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?$20.28Jul 25, 04:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$24.71Jul 25, 04:58 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$13.07Jul 25, 04:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$11.94Jul 25, 04:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$173.59Jul 25, 04:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$0.02Jul 25, 04:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$0.03Jul 25, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$0.01Jul 25, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$183.82Jul 25, 04:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?$136.50Jul 25, 03:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?$134.48Jul 25, 03:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$5.1KJul 25, 03:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$605.02Jul 25, 03:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$179.22Jul 25, 03:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
70/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
69% win rate over 104 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
104 closed markets, 69% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $954.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 02:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 06:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 104 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.