Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in April?
Probability
9¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-7.5pp
24h Vol
$239.07
Liquidity
$2.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-9.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 8pp over 24h
Now 9¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 14¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 134.3h
- 13:40PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 9¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 9¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 9¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 9¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 9¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 9¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 9¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 9¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 14¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session as listed on Pyth will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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