Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May?
Probability
20¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.5pp
24h Vol
$120.75
Liquidity
$10.6K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryPyth futures price feedLinkTypeCommodity price feed / futures dataConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-18.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 20¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $10.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryPyth futures price feedLinkTypeCommodity price feed / futures dataConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 518.4h
Price movement
-1.5pp over the last 24h, now 20¢.
Biggest hourly move: -24.5pp at 3d ago (to 23¢).
Show top 8 of 70 hourly moves
- 3d ago · -22.5pp → 25¢
- 3d ago · -22.5pp → 25¢
- 3d ago · -22.5pp → 25¢
- 3d ago · -22.5pp → 25¢
- 3d ago · -24.0pp → 24¢
- 3d ago · -24.5pp → 23¢
- 3d ago · -24.0pp → 24¢
- 3d ago · -24.5pp → 23¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
9- 3¢-0.7
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May?
Other · Vol $61.75
- 5¢-1.1
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,300 in May?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 7¢-1.5
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in May?
Other · Vol $18.00
- 12¢+0.5
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in May?
Other · Vol $316.89
- 23¢-3.0
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May?
Other · Vol $1.2K
- 50¢0.0
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May?
Other · Vol $755.62
- 79¢0.0
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?
Other · Vol $139.50
- 40¢0.0
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?
Other · Vol $755.04
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during May 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session as listed on Pyth will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May?"?
As of Sun, 10 May 2026 13:36:04 GMT, YES is priced at 20% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -18.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 1, 2026 (2026-06-01T03:59:59.999Z). Resolution is determined from https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$120.75 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $26.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $10.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
