Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,300 in May?
Probability
5¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-45.5pp
24h Vol
$65.51
Liquidity
$36.69
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 46pp over 24h
Now 5¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $37 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 10¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 791.8h
Price movement
-45.5pp over the last 24h, now 5¢.
Biggest hourly move: -45.5pp at 20:00 (to 5¢).
Show top 8 of 9 hourly moves
- 04:13 · -45.5pp → 5¢
- 03:00 · -45.5pp → 5¢
- 02:00 · -45.5pp → 5¢
- 00:00 · -45.5pp → 5¢
- 22:00 · -45.5pp → 5¢
- 20:00 · -45.5pp → 5¢
- 19:00 · -4.0pp → 46¢
- 15:00 · -4.5pp → 46¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 44¢-5.5pp
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 5¢-45.5pp
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in May?
Other · Vol $37.50
- 56¢+5.5pp
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in May?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 47¢-4.0pp
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May?
Other · Vol $20.11
- 51¢-5.0pp
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 57¢+1.0pp
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 98¢+23.2pp
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,700 in May?
Other · Vol $1.1K
- 75¢+19.0pp
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,600 in May?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-1.1pp
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April?
Other · Vol $398.7K
- 6¢0.0pp
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Other · Vol $293.6K
- 30¢-6.0pp
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $198.5K
- 38¢-1.0pp
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?
Other · Vol $192.2K
- 24¢-8.0pp
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?
Other · Vol $183.8K
- 94¢-1.0pp
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $176.1K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during May 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session as listed on Pyth will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryPyth futures price feedLinkTypeCommodity price feed / futures dataConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.