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EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 19, 2026

Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be at least 450k?

Probability

25¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+5.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$143.79

Probability (last 7 days)

-16.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 14:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:26
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Up 5pp over 24h

    Now 25¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 1307h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 40.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 1306.6h

    LOW
  • 13:26Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 1307h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 13:00Price

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 07:00Price

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 29¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 20¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 25¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -7.0pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 14.0pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 10.5pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 23¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 15.5pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 10.5pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 15.0pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 18.0pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 23¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 23¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 18.0pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 23¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 11.5pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 20¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

Olivia Rodrigo's new album 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' is expected to release June 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the debut week sales for Olivia Rodrigo's album 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love', according to Hits Daily Double. If the album 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' has not been released by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the album’s debut week sales fall exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the "HITS TOP 50" list found at https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming, specifically, the figure in the column titled "Activity", once the results are finalized for the album’s debut week. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another credible resolution source may be chosen.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 19, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
the debut week sales for Olivia Rodrigo's album 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love', according to Hits Daily DouAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (40.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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