Will Zinedine Zidane be the next manager of AC Milan?
Probability
9¢
1h
-11.1pp
24h
+1.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.1K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (16.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 9¢; -11.1pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 16.8¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (16.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Sep 1, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 2156.5h
- 03:32SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+1.1pp over the last 24h, now 9¢.
Biggest hourly move: -45.8pp at Jun 1, 14:00 UTC (to 2¢).
Show top 8 of 59 hourly moves
- Jun 1, 22:00 UTC · -45.8pp → 2¢
- Jun 1, 21:00 UTC · -45.3pp → 2¢
- Jun 1, 20:00 UTC · -45.3pp → 2¢
- Jun 1, 19:00 UTC · -45.8pp → 2¢
- Jun 1, 17:00 UTC · -45.8pp → 2¢
- Jun 1, 16:00 UTC · -45.8pp → 2¢
- Jun 1, 15:00 UTC · -45.8pp → 2¢
- Jun 1, 14:00 UTC · -45.8pp → 2¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the person appointed as the next permanent manager of AC Milan. If no permanent manager is appointed by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other." Appointments of 'interim,' 'caretaker,' or other non-permanent managers will not impact this market's resolution. An announcement of a new permanent manager's appointment before this market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option, regardless of when the announced appointment goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from AC Milan; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
ac milanReason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "ac milan" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Zinedine Zidane be the next manager of AC Milan?"?
As of Wed, 03 Jun 2026 03:32:16 GMT, YES is priced at 9% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.1pp in the last 24 hours, -11.1pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Sep 1, 2026 (2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $25.53. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 16.8¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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