SportsExpires May 3, 2026

Mertens vs. Pliskova: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5

Probability

24¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-18.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$673.75

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 24, 2026, 18:00Apr 26, 2026, 00:39
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 1

    Down 18pp over 24h

    Now 24¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $674 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 29¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 176.3h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 24¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market refers to the tennis match between Elise Mertens and Karolina Pliskova in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 26, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 11. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game toward the total. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA results.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 3, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
official WTA result
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.