Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Hailey Baptiste
Probability
89¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$6.6K
Liquidity
$77.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Volume pressure
Light volume — move on a thin book
Only $6.6k traded against $77.9k of visible liquidity (0.08× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 184.6h
Price movement
+6.5pp over the last 24h, now 89¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Aryna Sabalenka and Hailey Baptiste in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 28, 2026 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Aryna Sabalenka' if Aryna Sabalenka advances against Hailey Baptiste. This market will resolve to 'Hailey Baptiste' if Hailey Baptiste advances against Aryna Sabalenka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 5, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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