Signals

Live Signal Feed

Deterministic observations over live market and trade data. Research rows track movement patterns; resolution rows track settlement risk. Every row stays a verification workflow, not a trade call.

Total firing

59

Momentum

11

Divergence

2

Flow

0

Resolution Risk

46

updated 07:11:20 UTC·src:Polymarket Gamma·Polymarket Data·snap:snap_2026-07-26T07-11Z

Aggregate after-spread verdict per signal kind, mirroring the /backtest page. The inspector on the Research tab also shows the live slice verdict per signal so users can see when the live observation carries higher evidence than the historical aggregate would support.

MomentumBACKTESTWEAK

Weak after spread on /backtest: ~-2.6pp expected 24h move, ~40% win rate across the top-15 sample. Treat as research, not a profitable signal.

Live measured (24h)WEAK

Live measurement (240 firings, momentum): mean 24h drift -0.2pp · mean |drift| 17.4pp → WEAK.

SampleHIGH· live N=2020Full backtest
DivergenceBACKTESTWEAK

Weak after spread on /backtest: ~-1.8pp expected 24h move, ~49% win rate across the small sample available. Inspect, not actionable.

Live measured (24h)STRONG

Live measurement (88 firings, divergence): mean 24h drift +3.0pp · mean |drift| 12.5pp → STRONG.

SampleLOW· live N=334Full backtest
FlowBACKTESTFORWARD-ONLY

Forward-only — flow signals need persistent trade-feed history we don't yet store.

SampleFORWARD-ONLYFull backtest
News lagBACKTESTFORWARD-ONLY

Forward-only — news ingestion isn't persisted yet, so there's no backtest to aggregate.

SampleFORWARD-ONLYFull backtest
Resolution riskBACKTESTFORWARD-ONLY

Forward-only — event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone.

Live measured (24h)STRONG

Live measurement (393 firings, resolution_risk): mean 24h drift +6.0pp · mean |drift| 31.2pp → STRONG.

SampleFORWARD-ONLY· live N=7646Full backtest

Verdicts are a static snapshot from the latest /backtest run on the top-15 markets by volume; they drift as upstream data changes. A persistent backtest history will replace this snapshot once the signal-firing ledger lands.