0x01211381a507a738d9503cd4f442988033278ed3
0x01211381a507a738d9503cd4f442988033278ed3
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
29
Open notional
$98.62
Total PnL
$4.07
Realised
$1.65
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET
22 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$22.48
$1.35
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET
22 shares @ 96.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$22.32
$0.89
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
4 shares @ 74.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$4.00
$1.04
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
4 shares @ 68.9¢·now 88.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.56
$0.80
- NO
Will Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez before 2027?
4 shares @ 70.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.46
$0.66
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
4 shares @ 70.4¢·now 82.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.28
$0.47
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
3 shares @ 79.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$3.00
$0.61
- NO
Megan Thee Stallion and Klay Thompson engaged in 2026?
4 shares @ 70.0¢·now 71.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.87
$0.07
- NO
Will Timothée Chalamet be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026?
3 shares @ 90.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.86
$0.16
- NO
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
3 shares @ 92.7¢·now 94.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.84
$0.06
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Joshua Van be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?$1.84Jul 30, 15:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026?$1.34Jul 30, 15:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US federal government take a stake in NVIDIA Corporation?$1.49Jul 30, 15:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?$1.49Jul 30, 15:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$1.45Jul 30, 15:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$21.49Jul 30, 14:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$21.13Jul 30, 13:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.00Jul 30, 13:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.00Jul 30, 13:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.00Jul 30, 13:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.00Jul 30, 13:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.00Jul 30, 13:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.00Jul 30, 13:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.00Jul 30, 12:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.00Jul 30, 12:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.00Jul 30, 12:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.00Jul 30, 12:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.00Jul 30, 12:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.00Jul 30, 12:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.00Jul 30, 12:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
9 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 9
- Avg trade size
- $6.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 30, 08:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 15:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.