Will Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez before 2027?
Probability
24¢
1h
+5.5pp
24h
+3.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$11.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 24¢; +5.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5985.7h
- 14:17SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:16PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 18¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 18¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 18¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 19¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 21¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 23¢
- 04:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 18¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 20¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 18¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 22¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 22¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 23¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 22¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 22¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 22¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 22¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 18¢-0.5pp
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver before 2027?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 6¢+1.1pp
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz before 2027?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 9¢-0.5pp
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" before 2027?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 16¢-3.0pp
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027?
Politics · Vol $130.51
- 13¢-1.5pp
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams before 2027?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 10¢+0.1pp
Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 14¢-4.0pp
Will Trump pardon Young Thug before 2027?
Politics · Vol $17.00
- 0¢-0.2pp
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
Politics · Vol $1.9M
- 3¢-1.0pp
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $642.2K
- 0¢-0.2pp
Trump out as President by April 30?
Politics · Vol $562.6K
- 5¢+0.1pp
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $461.3K
- 0¢+0.2pp
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $372.3K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $345.9K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).