Delectable-Mansard
0x018d3f3476570de1205b6d8a41de43590398f921
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
24
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$-18.43
Win rate
58%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
590 shares @ 41.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-245.63
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 30?
454 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-27.25
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET
360 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-18.01
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET
317 shares @ 61.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-196.60
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET
308 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-98.43
- TOP ESPORTS
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2
262 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-26.24
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET
167 shares @ 73.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026$0.00
$-123.07
- UP
Dogecoin Up or Down on April 23?
88 shares @ 74.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-64.75
- NO
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on April 23?
68 shares @ 74.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-49.99
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 20?
68 shares @ 74.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-49.99
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on April 23?$1.53Apr 28, 20:02 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 23?$1.75Apr 28, 20:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on April 23?$1.84Apr 28, 20:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22?$2.07Apr 28, 20:02 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 22?$3.13Apr 28, 20:02 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?$4.00Apr 28, 20:02 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?$4.91Apr 28, 20:02 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?$5.15Apr 28, 20:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 22?$5.20Apr 28, 20:02 UTC
- REDEEMTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?$5.52Apr 28, 20:02 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?$5.88Apr 28, 20:02 UTC
- REDEEMTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?$7.51Apr 28, 20:02 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?$8.05Apr 28, 20:02 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?$10.12Apr 28, 20:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?$11.28Apr 28, 20:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 3°C on April 23?$23.08Apr 28, 20:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?$26.79Apr 28, 20:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 23?$27.91Apr 28, 20:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 23?$36.84Apr 28, 20:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 24?$37.22Apr 28, 20:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
58% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $26.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 22, 22:16 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 28, 20:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.