US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?
Probability
1¢
1h
+0.2pp
24h
-0.3pp
24h Vol
$574.5K
Liquidity
$79.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Without an Anthropic API key we show a heuristic summary derived from the market metrics.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 18:11SignalHIGH
Signal · Clustered NO flow
25 trades ($5,882) aligned on NO across 22 wallets in the last 30 min.
- 18:11SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 18:07TradeMEDIUM
Motionless-Artifact · SELL YES $5.3K
@ 88¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.0pp
to 2¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.8pp
to 2¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.9pp
to 5¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.1pp
to 1¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.1pp
to 1¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.6pp
to 4¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.6pp
to 0¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -28.9pp
to 1¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -51.5pp
to 1¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -61.0pp
to 1¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -60.6pp
to 0¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -75.4pp
to 1¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -86.3pp
to 1¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -85.4pp
to 1¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -87.2pp
to 1¢
- 00:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolved 18h ago
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -89.9pp
to 1¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -88.1pp
to 1¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -89.0pp
to 2¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -88.8pp
to 2¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -79.8pp
to 2¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -79.1pp
to 2¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -73.3pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -83.5pp
to 4¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -83.2pp
to 4¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -83.0pp
to 4¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
25- SELLUP4m ago
- BUYNATUS VINCERE4m ago
- BUYDOWN4m ago
- BUYDOWN4m ago
- BUYDOWN4m ago
- SELLYES4m ago
- BUYYES4m ago
- BUYDOWN4m ago
- BUYDOWN4m ago
- BUYDOWN4m ago
- BUYNATUS VINCERE4m ago
- BUYYES4m ago
Related Markets
14- 0¢-1.1pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 15, 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-0.6pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 16, 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-0.7pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-0.5pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-1.1pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 70¢+32.5pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Other · Vol $1.1M
- 0¢-1.1pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-23.4pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 100¢0.0pp
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Other · Vol $17.7M
- 0¢+0.1pp
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
Other · Vol $7.9M
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?
Other · Vol $5.8M
- 0¢-0.4pp
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Other · Vol $5.3M
- 0¢0.0pp
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Other · Vol $4.3M
- 11¢+3.0pp
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Other · Vol $3.5M
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 24, 2026
- Resolution source
- UMA status
- n/a
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the market rules.
- Market expires Apr 24, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
Top Holders
20 wallets- Skinny-Class102.4K
- 0x4c68…616270.8K
- Whimsical-Terminal44.8K
- True-Grandparent23.9K
- Near-Familiar22.4K
- Hideous-Racer81.3K
- Digital-Academy29.6K
- Mixed-Sofa23.8K
- Tidy-Jumbo20.4K
- Tender-Pine19.5K