US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?
Probability
7¢
1h
-14.8pp
24h
+1.1pp
24h Vol
$517.4K
Liquidity
$32.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Without an Anthropic API key we show a heuristic summary derived from the market metrics.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 00:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 5.8h
- 18:11SignalHIGH
Signal · Clustered NO flow
25 trades ($5,882) aligned on NO across 22 wallets in the last 30 min.
- 18:11SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 18:07TradeMEDIUM
Motionless-Artifact · SELL YES $5.3K
@ 88¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.6pp
to 6¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.1pp
to 11¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.1pp
to 18¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.2pp
to 5¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.7pp
to 16¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.8pp
to 2¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.3pp
to 3¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
25- SELLUP4m ago
- BUYNATUS VINCERE4m ago
- BUYDOWN4m ago
- BUYDOWN4m ago
- BUYDOWN4m ago
- SELLYES4m ago
- BUYYES4m ago
- BUYDOWN4m ago
- BUYDOWN4m ago
- BUYDOWN4m ago
- BUYNATUS VINCERE4m ago
- BUYYES4m ago
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 25, 2026
- Resolution source
- UMA status
- n/a
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the market rules.
- Market expires Apr 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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