Intrepid-Threat
0x02b8f0e8642e4ae0af25e5f30ef2fc311200ff77
Wallet digest
Activity score
97/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
28
Open notional
$2.1K
Total PnL
$-101.53
Realised
$64.14
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- NO
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
1000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$500.00
$0.00
- YES
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2821 shares @ 11.4¢·now 13.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$390.76
$69.14
- YES
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?
2682 shares @ 9.5¢·now 8.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$227.95
$-27.04
- YES
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
10841 shares @ 1.3¢·now 1.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$124.67
$-20.31
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
100 shares @ 94.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$94.50
$0.50
- YES
Will Palantir say "Government" 10+ times during earnings call?
100 shares @ 97.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$94.50
$-2.50
- NO
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 86.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$85.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
100 shares @ 86.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$84.50
$-1.50
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?
100 shares @ 91.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$79.50
$-11.50
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
100 shares @ 76.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$75.50
$-0.50
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 31?$5.00Aug 1, 05:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Aug 1, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$100.00Jul 31, 22:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?$42.14Jul 31, 12:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$91.23Jul 31, 12:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?$0.37Jul 31, 12:32 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Denmark Military clash before 2027?$101.95Jul 31, 12:30 UTC
- TRADESELLSituational Awareness announces fund wind-down by August 31, 2026?$3.81Jul 31, 12:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?$9.30Jul 31, 12:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?$512.50Jul 31, 03:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother pandemic before GTA VI?$42.27Jul 31, 03:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?$86.00Jul 31, 02:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$94.23Jul 31, 02:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76.00Jul 31, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Russia" during cabinet meeting?$29.91Jul 31, 02:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 31?$1.91Jul 31, 02:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?$10.68Jul 31, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?$24.96Jul 31, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Palantir say "Government" 10+ times during earnings call?$97.12Jul 31, 02:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYSituational Awareness announces fund wind-down by August 31, 2026?$17.70Jul 31, 02:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $61.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 00:00 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 05:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.