Powerful-Waffle
0x02d18361aaba5070aef7387f87f2b305fba64210
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
14
Open notional
$3.82
Total PnL
$-191.49
Realised
$-14.06
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
17 shares @ 31.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.17
$-2.14
- YES
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
53 shares @ 11.4¢·now 1.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.66
$-5.34
- YES
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?
250 shares @ 11.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-29.12
- YES
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?
200 shares @ 14.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-28.57
- YES
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?
200 shares @ 14.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-28.57
- YES
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?
200 shares @ 14.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-28.57
- YES
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?
100 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-0.40
- YES
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 1 - 7?
86 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-6.10
- YES
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 1 - 7?
73 shares @ 14.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-10.41
- YES
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 1 - 7?
41 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$7.12Jul 1, 06:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$1.79Jul 1, 06:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$37.38Jun 23, 21:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?$37.34Jun 22, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$4.56Jun 19, 02:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$44.80Jun 18, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$6.00Jun 18, 17:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$4.38Jun 18, 17:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$11.90Jun 18, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?$20.43Jun 18, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?$0.40Jun 16, 07:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?$0.45Jun 16, 06:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?$17.06Jun 16, 00:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$46.03Jun 15, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$13.13Jun 15, 18:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?$391.02Jun 15, 09:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?$16.40Jun 15, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?$7.37Jun 14, 21:53 UTC
- CONVERSIONHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes June 8 - June 14?$100.00Jun 14, 21:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?$98.57Jun 14, 21:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
15/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 72/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $22.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 7, 01:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 06:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.