WeatherMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 30, 2026

Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

Probability

28¢

+2.5pp

24h

+17.0pp

24h Vol

$33.08

Liquidity

$133.01

Probability (last 7 days)

-17.5pp 7d

Apr 18, 2026, 05:00Apr 25, 2026, 01:47

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 1582.2h
LOW
01:47Signal
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1582h with open resolution ambiguity.
LOW
01:00Price
Probability up 3.5pp
to 30¢
MEDIUM
21:00Price
Probability up 6.5pp
to 32¢
MEDIUM
20:00Price
Probability up 3.5pp
to 30¢
MEDIUM
18:00Price
Probability up 4.5pp
to 31¢
MEDIUM
16:00Price
Probability up 5.0pp
to 28¢
MEDIUM
14:00Price
Probability up 14.5pp
to 29¢
MEDIUM
12:00Price
Probability down -9.0pp
to 13¢
MEDIUM
11:00Price
Probability down -8.5pp
to 14¢
MEDIUM
10:00Price
Probability down -17.5pp
to 13¢
MEDIUM
08:00Price
Probability down -15.5pp
to 11¢
MEDIUM
06:00Price
Probability down -16.5pp
to 11¢
MEDIUM
05:00Price
Probability down -11.0pp
to 11¢
MEDIUM
03:00Price
Probability down -9.5pp
to 11¢
MEDIUM
02:00Price
Probability down -8.5pp
to 11¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -15.0pp
to 12¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -15.0pp
to 12¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -15.0pp
to 12¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -19.5pp
to 11¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -13.0pp
to 12¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -30.5pp
to 16¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -26.0pp
to 18¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -37.0pp
to 8¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -26.0pp
to 21¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -23.5pp
to 24¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -22.0pp
to 25¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -26.0pp
to 23¢
MEDIUM

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventHow many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Jun 30, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7Ambiguous wordingextracted · low
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Wide spread (38.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

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Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket