Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
Probability
9¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-8.5pp
24h Vol
$114.68
Liquidity
$222.14
Probability (last 7 days)
-7.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1580.3h
- 03:40SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1580h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 9¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 9¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 20¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 20¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 20¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 20¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 20¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 19¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 19¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 19¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 18¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 19¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 19¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 19¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 19¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 18¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 18¢
- 04:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 9¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 14¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 14¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7Ambiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).