Jolly-Leader
0x033025f6cede59b115a49446d0208586ba47eb8f
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$2.9K
Total PnL
$-982.52
Realised
$186.45
Win rate
83%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- YES
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
943 shares @ 87.6¢·now 93.5¢·exp Sep 6, 2026$881.95
$55.58
- YES
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
399 shares @ 85.9¢·now 86.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$344.74
$2.44
- YES
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?
1254 shares @ 25.7¢·now 19.5¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$244.50
$-77.87
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
2208 shares @ 15.4¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$231.83
$-107.51
- NO
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
260 shares @ 76.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$208.00
$10.40
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?
213 shares @ 32.8¢·now 77.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$163.67
$93.93
- YES
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
400 shares @ 25.6¢·now 26.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$105.99
$3.40
- NO
Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives by June 30?
100 shares @ 92.8¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$99.51
$6.66
- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
981 shares @ 25.5¢·now 10.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$98.11
$-151.99
- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
239 shares @ 40.3¢·now 26.7¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$63.65
$-32.60
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?$20.00Jun 13, 12:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?$13.00Jun 13, 09:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?$0.83Jun 13, 04:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?$0.80Jun 13, 04:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?$0.15Jun 13, 04:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?$0.24Jun 13, 03:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?$0.12Jun 13, 01:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?$0.85Jun 13, 01:55 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 13, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?$1.76Jun 12, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?$0.96Jun 12, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?$0.40Jun 12, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?$0.68Jun 12, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?$0.20Jun 12, 21:28 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 12, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$3.89Jun 12, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$2.30Jun 11, 21:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$6.90Jun 11, 21:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$2.30Jun 11, 21:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?$22.22Jun 11, 19:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $26.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 8, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 12:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.