Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Probability
49¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+2.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 49¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5980h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5980.3h
- 19:43SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5980h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+2.0pp over the last 24h, now 49¢.
Biggest hourly move: +7.5pp at 2d ago (to 49¢).
Show all 32 hour-by-hour ticks
- 19:00 · +6.0pp → 49¢
- 17:00 · +6.0pp → 49¢
- 15:00 · +5.0pp → 48¢
- 14:00 · +4.5pp → 48¢
- 12:00 · +5.5pp → 48¢
- 11:00 · +5.5pp → 49¢
- 09:00 · +6.0pp → 49¢
- 08:00 · +6.0pp → 49¢
- 06:00 · +6.5pp → 49¢
- 05:00 · +6.0pp → 48¢
- 03:00 · +5.5pp → 48¢
- 02:00 · +5.5pp → 48¢
- 00:00 · +5.5pp → 48¢
- 23:00 · +5.5pp → 48¢
- 21:00 · +5.5pp → 48¢
- 20:00 · +4.0pp → 47¢
- 1d ago · +4.0pp → 47¢
- 1d ago · +7.0pp → 50¢
- 1d ago · +6.0pp → 49¢
- 1d ago · +4.5pp → 47¢
- 1d ago · +6.5pp → 49¢
- 1d ago · +6.5pp → 49¢
- 2d ago · +6.5pp → 49¢
- 2d ago · +5.5pp → 49¢
- 2d ago · +4.5pp → 48¢
- 2d ago · +7.0pp → 48¢
- 2d ago · +7.5pp → 49¢
- 2d ago · +7.0pp → 49¢
- 2d ago · +5.0pp → 46¢
- 2d ago · +6.5pp → 47¢
- 2d ago · -5.0pp → 41¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 43¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://Ambiguous wordingextracted · lowlmarena.ai
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.