0x0655a192f76f1e512e20d3aa51b7917384bd475d
0x0655a192f76f1e512e20d3aa51b7917384bd475d
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$1.7K
Total PnL
$-52.24
Realised
$90.01
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
885 shares @ 90.4¢·now 89.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$787.43
$-12.57
- YES
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?
360 shares @ 83.3¢·now 91.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$327.62
$27.62
- NO
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
237 shares @ 84.4¢·now 82.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$194.40
$-5.60
- YES
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
203 shares @ 74.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$179.39
$29.39
- YES
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
122 shares @ 81.8¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$115.56
$15.56
- NO
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
76 shares @ 66.0¢·now 38.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$28.79
$-21.21
- YES
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
98 shares @ 81.4¢·now 13.2¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$12.97
$-67.03
- YES
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
50 shares @ 39.9¢·now 20.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.30
$-9.70
- YES
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
72 shares @ 69.9¢·now 1.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.29
$-48.71
- YES
Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
91 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$0.00
$-50.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?$217.39Aug 1, 00:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?$572.19Jul 31, 21:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$670.90Jul 31, 21:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?$117.65Jul 30, 07:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?$0.00Jul 12, 14:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election?$0.00Jul 12, 14:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?$0.00Jul 12, 14:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$100.00Jul 12, 14:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$300.00Jul 12, 14:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$420.61Jul 6, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?$201.28Jul 4, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?$200.64Jul 4, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?$100.60Jul 4, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$300.00Jul 4, 12:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?$401.92Jul 4, 12:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$502.00Jul 4, 12:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$57.69Jul 1, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$120.05Jun 30, 19:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?$86.42Jun 30, 19:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?$100.72Jun 28, 14:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $151.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 1, 19:38 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 00:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.