Daring-Productivity
0x06ae9a98783712fb490e9500481c67c3655af059
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$526.59
Total PnL
$-26.0K
Realised
$-786.24
Win rate
34%
74 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
604 shares @ 62.1¢·now 57.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$347.56
$-27.64
- NO
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
124 shares @ 87.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$104.83
$-3.10
- YES
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
5117 shares @ 1.8¢·now 1.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$74.20
$-19.33
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
7329 shares @ 29.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.2K
- YES
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
3868 shares @ 25.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-976.60
- YES
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?
1539 shares @ 21.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-331.06
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET
1355 shares @ 9.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-126.28
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1280 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-7.68
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET
1261 shares @ 19.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-250.87
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET
1200 shares @ 55.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-662.29
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$3.76Aug 1, 07:50 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$3.37Aug 1, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$58.14Jul 31, 21:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$3.41Jul 31, 18:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$3.15Jul 31, 14:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$9.81Jul 31, 14:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$2.05Jul 31, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$2.90Jul 31, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$1.84Jul 31, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$1.81Jul 31, 14:14 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$24.00Jul 31, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$2.21Jul 31, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$2.68Jul 31, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$10.30Jul 31, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$2.21Jul 31, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$2.88Jul 31, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$2.16Jul 31, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$2.11Jul 31, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$2.88Jul 31, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$2.11Jul 31, 14:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
34% win rate over 74 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
74 closed markets, 34% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $4.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 13:30 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 07:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 74 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.