Funny-Connotation
0x07b90f1e574b450a6a8a782f862d1a1e8f650fbb
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
137
Open notional
$25.6K
Total PnL
$-4.4K
Realised
$210.80
Win rate
51%
35 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 137- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
1300 shares @ 87.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$13.44
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 91.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$915.01
$5.00
- NO
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?
900 shares @ 93.5¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$896.53
$54.92
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
900 shares @ 91.9¢·now 97.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$878.86
$52.05
- NO
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
900 shares @ 81.8¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$814.10
$78.04
- NO
Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30?
800 shares @ 94.4¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$798.00
$43.00
- NO
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?
739 shares @ 93.1¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$735.54
$47.48
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
707 shares @ 91.5¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$703.39
$56.58
- YES
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
700 shares @ 72.6¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$697.54
$189.55
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
600 shares @ 90.7¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$597.88
$53.90
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$2.08Jun 24, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.22Jun 24, 00:13 UTC
- REWARD$1.70Jun 24, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Putin not meet?$1.83Jun 23, 22:42 UTC
- REWARD$2.62Jun 23, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.19Jun 23, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$25.00Jun 23, 18:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$24.81Jun 23, 18:11 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$356.83Jun 23, 18:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Putin not meet?$28.67Jun 23, 18:10 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$18.17Jun 23, 17:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?$141.88Jun 23, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Portugal win on 2026-06-23?$35.00Jun 23, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?$2.53Jun 23, 15:42 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$290.10Jun 23, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?$25.30Jun 23, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?$88.70Jun 23, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?$40.05Jun 23, 12:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.15Jun 23, 12:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$46.50Jun 23, 12:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
51% win rate over 35 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
35 closed markets, 51% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $68.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 04:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 24, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 35 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.