0x07ec6edc0697c9eef8d8137fe6f5829da9720ec4
0x07ec6edc0697c9eef8d8137fe6f5829da9720ec4
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
25
Open notional
$19.00
Total PnL
$-287.88
Realised
$-20.28
Win rate
47%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- NO
Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?
15 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$15.00
$4.50
- NO
Will Dusty Johnson win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?
4 shares @ 53.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$4.00
$1.88
- ASTRALIS
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic - Map 1 Winner
500 shares @ 8.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-40.96
- NO
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
303 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-6.66
- NO
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting?
169 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-3.46
- YES
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026
160 shares @ 22.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-35.56
- YES
Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
150 shares @ 58.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-87.49
- NO
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting?
132 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-7.78
- YES
Will "I Just Might - Bruno Mars" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of April 25?
131 shares @ 9.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-13.01
- YES
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in April?
93 shares @ 16.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-15.65
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?$0.00Jun 15, 06:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?$0.00Jun 14, 06:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?$0.98Jun 13, 16:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026$0.99Jun 13, 16:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week? (February 10)$1.00Jun 13, 16:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill USA win Pool B at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?$3.06Jun 13, 16:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$5.94Jun 13, 16:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Be Her - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of April 25?$10.54Jun 13, 16:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Choosin’ Texas by Ella Langley be the Billboard #1 song for the week of February 14?$18.99Jun 13, 16:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill one person dissent the April Fed decision?$59.52Jun 13, 16:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?$81.74Jun 13, 16:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?$0.00Jun 13, 16:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026$0.00Jun 13, 16:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week? (February 10)$0.00Jun 13, 16:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill USA win Pool B at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?$0.00Jun 13, 16:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$0.00Jun 13, 16:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Be Her - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of April 25?$0.00Jun 13, 16:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?$0.00Jun 13, 16:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Choosin’ Texas by Ella Langley be the Billboard #1 song for the week of February 14?$0.00Jun 13, 16:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill one person dissent the April Fed decision?$0.00Jun 13, 16:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
47% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
5 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 5
- Avg trade size
- $12.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 19, 06:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 15, 06:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.