PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires May 9, 2026

Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?

Probability

36¢

-0.5pp

24h

-1.0pp

24h Vol

$1.3K

Liquidity

$27.8K

Probability (last 7 days)

-24.0pp 7d

Apr 18, 2026, 01:00Apr 24, 2026, 23:55

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 336.1h
LOW
23:55Signal
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 336h with open resolution ambiguity.
LOW
23:00Price
Probability down -4.0pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
21:00Price
Probability down -3.5pp
to 37¢
MEDIUM
20:00Price
Probability down -5.5pp
to 35¢
MEDIUM
18:00Price
Probability down -4.5pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
17:00Price
Probability down -7.0pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
16:00Price
Probability down -8.0pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
14:00Price
Probability down -9.5pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
13:00Price
Probability down -10.0pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
12:00Price
Probability down -14.5pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
11:00Price
Probability down -21.0pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
10:00Price
Probability down -21.0pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
08:00Price
Probability down -14.0pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
06:00Price
Probability down -21.5pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
05:00Price
Probability down -20.5pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
03:00Price
Probability down -17.0pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
02:00Price
Probability down -17.0pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
00:00Price
Probability down -15.0pp
to 37¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -22.0pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -18.0pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -17.5pp
to 37¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -20.0pp
to 35¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -15.0pp
to 35¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -12.5pp
to 35¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -19.5pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -16.0pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -19.0pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -17.5pp
to 37¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -16.5pp
to 39¢
MEDIUM

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventFarrer By-Election Winner

Category · Politics

Market Description

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 9, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Not specified in metadata
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket