0x094e3e7c5486ca7f5efd45de09857b873c70f10b
0x094e3e7c5486ca7f5efd45de09857b873c70f10b
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
98
Open notional
$6.4K
Total PnL
$-9.3K
Realised
$23.3K
Win rate
83%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 98- NO
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
1417 shares @ 78.9¢·now 90.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.3K
$156.68
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
1332 shares @ 77.3¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.2K
$175.38
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
444 shares @ 79.0¢·now 96.7¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$429.12
$78.36
- NO
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene announce a presidential run before 2027?
413 shares @ 90.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$381.78
$10.32
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
333 shares @ 90.0¢·now 95.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$318.51
$18.81
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
333 shares @ 89.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$294.70
$-1.67
- NO
Will The Odyssey have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
222 shares @ 91.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$222.00
$17.98
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
222 shares @ 85.0¢·now 96.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$213.45
$24.75
- NO
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
222 shares @ 87.0¢·now 93.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$206.79
$13.65
- NO
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
222 shares @ 69.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$205.35
$52.17
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.08Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 25, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 23, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 21, 20:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "Euro" during the France vs England FIFA World Cup Match?$23.00Jul 19, 03:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$111.00Jul 19, 03:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok?$221.99Jul 19, 03:49 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?$222.00Jul 19, 03:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$222.00Jul 19, 03:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?$222.00Jul 19, 03:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?$222.00Jul 19, 03:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$443.99Jul 19, 03:49 UTC
- REDEEMBill Clinton divorce by June 30?$554.97Jul 19, 03:49 UTC
- REDEEMTaylor Swift pregnant before marriage?$614.27Jul 19, 03:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
1 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 1
- Avg trade size
- $23.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.