Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.

2. 2

   Thin liquidity

   Only $6.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that the listed individual, either personally or through an entity, enters into an agreement with TikTok to acquire its US operations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. The entity entering into the agreement does not need to be controlled by the listed individual; their involvement as a partial owner, investor, or similar role will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed individual and/or TikTok, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.