Knobby-Crayfish
0x0966bca66e754450b10ee105b68af25bebef514b
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
189
Open notional
$3.91
Total PnL
$-495.02
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 189- NO
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
44 shares @ 2.3¢·now 5.2¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$2.28
$1.28
- UNDER
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5
1 shares @ 80.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.63
$-0.37
- YES
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
63 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.44
$-0.56
- YES
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.31
$-0.69
- YES
Trump out as President by July 31?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.25
$-0.75
- YES
Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 5M ETH before 2027?
396 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-1.23
- NO
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET$1.96Jul 29, 01:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET$1.03Jul 29, 01:22 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET$2.00Jul 29, 01:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET$1.03Jul 29, 01:01 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$1.96Jul 29, 00:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$1.03Jul 29, 00:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET$1.03Jul 29, 00:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET$1.03Jul 28, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 20?$15.21Jul 20, 10:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 20?$15.11Jul 20, 10:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 20?$15.01Jul 19, 19:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 19?$15.47Jul 19, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: CU Técnica de Cajamarca (-2.5)$1.05Jul 18, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the game go to extra innings?: Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers$1.04Jul 18, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 19?$15.02Jul 18, 20:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 18?$16.24Jul 18, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 18?$15.06Jul 18, 09:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on July 18?$15.19Jul 18, 09:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on July 18?$15.01Jul 17, 22:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 17?$19.46Jul 17, 22:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $11.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 22:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 01:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.