Impolite-Mode
0x09e27c2cbcd98c7e821ef66b309506701dcf29de
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$2.3K
Total PnL
$-226.67
Realised
$222.03
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?
815 shares @ 49.7¢·now 69.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$562.27
$157.08
- NO
Will South Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
550 shares @ 41.0¢·now 98.4¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$540.92
$315.13
- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
570 shares @ 43.7¢·now 65.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$373.35
$124.22
- YES
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?
2173 shares @ 27.6¢·now 9.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$195.57
$-404.28
- YES
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
320 shares @ 37.9¢·now 49.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$159.52
$38.24
- YES
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
500 shares @ 16.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$127.50
$47.50
- NO
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
334 shares @ 66.9¢·now 36.5¢·exp Oct 27, 2026$121.76
$-101.29
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
223 shares @ 44.8¢·now 47.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$105.92
$5.97
- NO
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?
74 shares @ 48.0¢·now 96.2¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$71.19
$35.67
- YES
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
909 shares @ 9.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-85.79
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill a Chinese company have one of the top 5 AI models by December 31?$5.0KAug 3, 07:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Chinese company have one of the top 5 AI models by December 31?$42.27Aug 3, 02:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Chinese company have one of the top 5 AI models by December 31?$2.4KAug 3, 02:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?$449.89Aug 1, 18:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?$1.00Aug 1, 06:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?$24.29Jul 31, 18:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$165.00Jul 28, 06:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?$331.38Jul 27, 04:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?$1.4KJul 24, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?$1.1KJul 24, 16:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$205.08Jul 20, 19:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$423.30Jul 20, 14:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$61.60Jul 19, 18:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic announce permanent paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026?$98.52Jul 18, 02:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic announce permanent paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 24, 2026?$1.0KJul 18, 02:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?$269.37Jul 18, 02:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic announce permanent paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 24, 2026?$709.14Jul 18, 02:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic announce permanent paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026?$64.92Jul 18, 02:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?$206.40Jul 18, 02:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31?$109.00Jul 14, 22:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $567.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 6, 23:35 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 3, 07:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.