Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?
Probability
21¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
+1.5pp
24h Vol
$53.34
Liquidity
$5.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
-6.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 21¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $5.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5984.6h
- 15:25SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 21¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 22¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 21¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 21¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 21¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 21¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 21¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 22¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 21¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 21¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 21¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 21¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 21¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 21¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 21¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 22¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 21¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the named people no longer serving as CEOs of their respective companies for any length of time between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of the named CEO's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the named CEOs and their respective companies, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).