Cheap-Halibut
0x0a57ce440dede007e898cc3fa9dfdc7ffa92dc32
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
99
Open notional
$127.39
Total PnL
$-619.58
Realised
$-32.74
Win rate
17%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 99- YES
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
88 shares @ 40.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$38.28
$3.08
- YES
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?
200 shares @ 24.0¢·now 16.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$32.00
$-16.00
- YES
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
80 shares @ 38.9¢·now 38.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$30.64
$-0.56
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
40 shares @ 44.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$13.40
$-4.20
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Alabama Senate race in 2026?
200 shares @ 6.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$9.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?
1 shares @ 92.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.94
$0.02
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Colorado governor race in 2026?
1 shares @ 90.9¢·now 93.8¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.94
$0.03
- YES
Will ReLebanon win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
222 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.4¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.89
$-1.11
- YES
Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.70
$-0.30
- YES
Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.60
$-1.40
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 30?$17.85Jul 2, 03:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?$1.01Jul 1, 23:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?$9.00Jul 1, 08:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?$9.00Jul 1, 08:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump and Putin not meet?$1.02Jul 1, 07:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026?$2.01Jul 1, 07:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?$1.01Jul 1, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Freddie Mac not IPO by June 30, 2026?$1.02Jul 1, 07:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jul 1, 07:28 UTC
- REDEEMNo one announced as next James Bond?$5.00Jul 1, 07:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?$1.01Jul 1, 07:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?$1.00Jul 1, 04:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 34°C on June 30?$14.70Jul 1, 04:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 30?$12.82Jul 1, 03:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 30?$11.62Jul 1, 03:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30?$7.25Jun 30, 23:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$9.04Jun 30, 23:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 30?$16.12Jun 30, 22:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 30?$12.25Jun 30, 22:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 30?$14.28Jun 30, 21:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $1.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 29, 23:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 03:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.