Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?
Probability
90¢
1h
+0.4pp
24h
+0.4pp
24h Vol
$9.67
Liquidity
$118.43
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1527h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 12.3¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1527.0h
- 08:57SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 1527h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.3pp over the last 24h, now 89¢.
Biggest hourly move: +7.9pp at 3d ago (to 88¢).
Show top 8 of 9 hourly moves
- 07:00 · +3.3pp → 90¢
- 2d ago · -4.1pp → 85¢
- 2d ago · -3.8pp → 86¢
- 2d ago · -3.6pp → 86¢
- 2d ago · -3.6pp → 86¢
- 2d ago · -3.4pp → 86¢
- 3d ago · +5.4pp → 86¢
- 3d ago · +7.9pp → 88¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryDatabricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of tradingTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (12.3¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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