0x0a6f46398a92fb74fd48106dfb4ca8e0d68870ed
0x0a6f46398a92fb74fd48106dfb4ca8e0d68870ed
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$9.56
Total PnL
$-63.13
Realised
$7.96
Win rate
57%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?
5 shares @ 34.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$4.85
$3.20
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 3°C on January 5?
5 shares @ 74.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 5, 2026$4.71
$1.20
- YES
Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025?
129 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.09
- YES
Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-12-26?
112 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 26, 2025$0.00
$-0.56
- YES
Will Sheffield Wednesday FC win on 2025-12-26?
112 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 26, 2025$0.00
$-0.56
- YES
Will Paris FC win on 2026-01-04?
63 shares @ -7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 4, 2026$0.00
$4.82
- YES
Will Lehigh win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
21 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-0.19
- YES
Will Texas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
21 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-0.19
- YES
Will Penn win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
21 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-0.19
- YES
Will Miami (OH) win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
21 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-0.19
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?$3.41Jan 5, 13:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$2.58Jan 5, 13:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$5.64Jan 5, 13:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$3.78Jan 5, 13:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$5.92Jan 5, 13:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$6.24Jan 5, 13:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$5.98Jan 5, 13:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$10.22Jan 5, 13:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$9.97Jan 5, 13:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$11.35Jan 5, 13:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$11.33Jan 5, 13:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Broncos win the AFC Championship?$14.31Jan 5, 13:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Patriots win the AFC Championship?$11.97Jan 5, 13:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bills win the AFC Championship?$16.38Jan 5, 13:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Steelers win the AFC Championship?$19.07Jan 5, 13:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Patriots win the AFC Championship?$16.31Jan 5, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Steelers win the AFC Championship?$19.29Jan 5, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bills win the AFC Championship?$16.70Jan 5, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Broncos win the AFC Championship?$14.91Jan 5, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$9.99Jan 5, 13:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
57% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $7.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 5, 04:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 5, 13:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.