Useless-Marker
0x0b651d994b2e8c7f3f84442b759941a830e0013e
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
83
Open notional
$7.5K
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$476.88
Win rate
53%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 83- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
800 shares @ 96.1¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$798.01
$29.00
- NO
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
650 shares @ 73.8¢·now 97.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$636.01
$156.52
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
800 shares @ 72.5¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$604.00
$24.00
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?
400 shares @ 98.9¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$398.40
$2.80
- NO
Iran leadership change by July 31?
400 shares @ 95.7¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$396.80
$14.00
- NO
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
400 shares @ 92.6¢·now 97.3¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$389.19
$18.90
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
386 shares @ 90.4¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$357.44
$8.16
- YES
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
300 shares @ 93.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$298.80
$19.80
- YES
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
400 shares @ 73.0¢·now 74.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$295.79
$3.60
- NO
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?
300 shares @ 86.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$286.50
$28.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?$240.83Jul 29, 08:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?$8.60Jul 29, 04:40 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?$4.06Jul 28, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO downs another Russian drone by July 31?$160.00Jul 28, 23:06 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$100.00Jul 28, 22:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$57.00Jul 28, 21:43 UTC
- TRADESELLPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$117.24Jul 28, 21:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?$5.22Jul 28, 21:13 UTC
- TRADESELLPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$343.98Jul 28, 20:20 UTC
- TRADESELLPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$90.79Jul 28, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$38.10Jul 28, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?$91.52Jul 28, 16:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$400.00Jul 28, 06:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Janet Mills be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$200.00Jul 28, 06:08 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.14Jul 28, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$1.07Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- REWARD$1.43Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$5.00Jul 27, 23:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
53% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $64.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 22:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 08:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.