0x0b9168da5620dfab028b53c753a3be88d585ae77
0x0b9168da5620dfab028b53c753a3be88d585ae77
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
103
Open notional
$7.2K
Total PnL
$-21.4K
Realised
$170.35
Win rate
4%
54 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 103- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
5500 shares @ 47.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.7K
$137.50
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
3000 shares @ 69.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.0K
$-75.00
- YES
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
2000 shares @ 66.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jan 20, 2029$1.3K
$-50.00
- YES
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
1748 shares @ 33.1¢·now 35.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$612.61
$34.08
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1627 shares @ 9.0¢·now 19.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$311.54
$164.86
- YES
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 26?
182 shares @ 68.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Aug 26, 2026$181.63
$57.87
- YES
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
520 shares @ 25.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$132.60
$2.60
- NO
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 20?
384 shares @ 43.0¢·now 0.6¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$2.30
$-162.71
- YES
Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 208+ House seats after the 2026 midterms?
15 shares @ 5.0¢·now 5.3¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.80
$0.05
- NO
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 19?
8 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.4¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$0.03
$-4.26
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$100.00Aug 13, 05:41 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$9.46Aug 13, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.27Aug 13, 00:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?$850.01Aug 13, 00:09 UTC
- REWARD$4.06Aug 13, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?$699.39Aug 12, 21:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?$1.75Aug 12, 21:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?$22.02Aug 12, 21:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?$1.75Aug 12, 21:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?$5.23Aug 12, 21:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14?$583.10Aug 12, 20:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14?$378.25Aug 12, 18:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14?$81.52Aug 12, 18:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 15?$648.65Aug 12, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?$27.28Aug 12, 15:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14?$172.25Aug 12, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?$215.75Aug 12, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 208+ House seats after the 2026 midterms?$0.75Aug 12, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 15?$114.89Aug 12, 03:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 20?$150.50Aug 12, 02:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
4% win rate over 54 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
54 closed markets, 4% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $152.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 9, 21:02 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 13, 05:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 54 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.