Limping-Escalator-Skyscraper
0x0e0261db615b6df9b478b9ac26306e9dda9970e6
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
54
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-196.84
Realised
$-2.42
Win rate
44%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 54- YES
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
6 shares @ 17.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
278 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
178 shares @ 29.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-52.22
- YES
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
158 shares @ 7.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-11.56
- YES
Will Nithya Raman & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
137 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET
125 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET
102 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLSpain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?$4.99Jul 19, 21:47 UTC
- TRADESELLSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$22.65Jul 19, 21:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?$3.06Jul 19, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Argentina?$1.04Jul 19, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYLionel Messi: 1+ goals$1.04Jul 19, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYLamine Yamal: 1+ assists$3.10Jul 19, 19:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYLionel Messi: 1+ goals$3.09Jul 19, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$15.30Jul 19, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$1.06Jul 11, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$1.04Jul 11, 14:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$1.06Jul 11, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$1.07Jul 11, 13:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Robert Mitchell win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?$3.74Jul 11, 13:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$0.73Jul 11, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Robert Mitchell win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?$1.03Jul 8, 21:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?$1.04Jul 8, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Robert Mitchell win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?$2.06Jul 8, 21:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?$4.08Jul 4, 22:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYParaguay vs. France: Team to Advance$5.13Jul 4, 22:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.82Jul 4, 22:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
44% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $4.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 14, 22:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 21:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.