Spiteful-Yarn
0x108807360cccbe07e85047bda011b3187554b813
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
28
Open notional
$313.19
Total PnL
$25.21
Realised
$7.50
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- YES
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
200 shares @ 6.3¢·now 12.3¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$24.70
$12.00
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
45 shares @ 54.3¢·now 53.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$24.07
$-0.37
- YES
Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
231 shares @ 3.1¢·now 10.3¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$23.82
$16.71
- NO
Christopher Luxon out by September 30?
24 shares @ 54.6¢·now 80.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$19.11
$6.14
- YES
Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
235 shares @ 3.5¢·now 7.8¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$18.46
$10.09
- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
200 shares @ 7.0¢·now 8.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$17.10
$3.00
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
30 shares @ 52.3¢·now 55.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$16.65
$0.95
- NO
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
50 shares @ 28.0¢·now 32.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$16.25
$2.25
- YES
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori?
59 shares @ 9.7¢·now 23.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$13.92
$8.17
- YES
Will the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
272 shares @ 5.8¢·now 5.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$13.62
$-2.17
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 30, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$1.06Jul 29, 09:36 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori?$4.94Jul 27, 21:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Winston Peters be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?$0.57Jul 21, 10:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill New Zealand First Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$0.10Jul 21, 10:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$3.46Jul 21, 10:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Green Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$4.84Jul 21, 10:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$6.51Jul 21, 10:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill New Zealand First Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$0.38Jul 21, 10:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Labour Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$29.91Jul 21, 10:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + NZF?$0.09Jul 21, 10:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?$12.78Jul 21, 10:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
23 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $17.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.