Christopher Luxon out by September 30?
Probability
36¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-2.5pp
24h Vol
$46.57
Liquidity
$7.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 3788.4h
- 03:37SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 3788h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 36¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -41.0pp
to 34¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.0pp
to 36¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.5pp
to 33¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 34¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 36¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 36¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 34¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 36¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 34¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 42¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 43¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 42¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 37¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 37¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christopher Luxon ceases to be Prime Minister of New Zealand for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Christopher Luxon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christopher Luxon and the government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (15.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).