Will New Zealand First Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Probability
1¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.9K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 7, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
-11.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $2.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 7, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Nov 7, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 4160.9h
Price movement
+0.1pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.
Biggest hourly move: -11.5pp at May 14, 10:00 UTC (to 0¢).
Show top 8 of 27 hourly moves
- May 14, 15:00 UTC · -8.8pp → 0¢
- May 14, 13:00 UTC · -8.6pp → 1¢
- May 14, 12:00 UTC · -8.4pp → 1¢
- May 14, 10:00 UTC · -11.5pp → 0¢
- May 14, 05:00 UTC · -10.9pp → 0¢
- May 13, 08:00 UTC · -9.4pp → 1¢
- May 13, 06:00 UTC · -8.6pp → 1¢
- May 13, 04:00 UTC · -9.3pp → 2¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
general electionReason
Election markets are Politics.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will New Zealand First Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?"?
As of Sun, 17 May 2026 15:05:23 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -11.1pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Nov 7, 2026 (2026-11-07T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $318.68. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.9K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.4¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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