Gullible-Context
0x118418e8af3a8441ea5e0268ad4ae8b6cb761b67
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$741.64
Total PnL
$-688.02
Realised
$-23.72
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
933 shares @ 73.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$499.15
$-181.94
- YES
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
1323 shares @ 36.4¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$125.69
$-356.31
- NO
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
53 shares @ 88.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$50.61
$3.97
- YES
Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?
160 shares @ 74.2¢·now 17.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$27.12
$-91.60
- YES
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?
86 shares @ 48.0¢·now 19.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.34
$-24.94
- YES
Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?
213 shares @ 12.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.58
$-15.98
- NO
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 74.1¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.45
$2.04
- NO
Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO before 2027?
4 shares @ 81.0¢·now 92.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.69
$0.45
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Iran strike Oman again in March?$0.00Jun 18, 06:41 UTC
- REDEEMHamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5$0.00Jun 18, 06:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "IQ" during the 2026 State of the Union address?$0.00Jun 18, 06:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027?$0.00Jun 18, 06:41 UTC
- REDEEMBlackburn Beavers vs. Eastern Illinois Panthers$64.00Jun 18, 06:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Team Spirit qualify to Blast Open Rotterdam Playoffs?$0.00Jun 18, 06:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Yeah" be said 100+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week? (February 15)$0.00Jun 18, 06:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Brett M. Kavanaugh attend the 2026 State of the Union address?$0.00Jun 18, 06:41 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - February 22, 3AM ET$0.00Jun 18, 06:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during April press conference?$214.00Jun 18, 06:41 UTC
- REDEEMLevante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5$0.00Jun 18, 06:41 UTC
- REDEEMMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks$245.00Jun 18, 06:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?$0.00Jun 18, 06:41 UTC
- REDEEMTim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?$0.00Jun 18, 06:41 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - February 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$0.00Jun 18, 06:41 UTC
- REDEEMSouthern Miss Golden Eagles vs. Prairie View A&M Panthers$252.50Jun 18, 06:41 UTC
- REDEEMRayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5$0.00Jun 18, 06:41 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Ipswich Town FC (-1.5)$639.00Jun 18, 06:41 UTC
- REDEEMSydney FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 1.5$650.00Jun 18, 06:41 UTC
- REDEEMMississippi Valley State Delta Devils vs. Southern Jaguars$0.00Jun 18, 06:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $210.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 12, 09:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 06:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.